Weekly Update

TPCM Weekly5.11.26

Weekly Update
TPCM Market & Economic Update
Published
May 11, 2026
TPCM Logo

U.S. equities advanced as investors looked past geopolitical volatility and focused on strong earnings, resilient labor data, and continued AI-related momentum. All major indexes were in the green led by the Nasdaq which gained 4.5% spurred on by an 8.4% rise in the technology sector (XLK). The SPX climbed by 2.4% to record highs, while small and mid-cap indexes climbed by 1.7%, also closing at new highs during the week.

Corporate earnings remained strong, with roughly 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported and just under 85% beating consensus estimates (Factset). The technology sector (XLK) was driven by memory names including MU and SNDK, which both gained in excess of 30%, while AMD and INTC posted mid-20% gains as investors sought CPU exposure as their importance to inference tech stacks became more clear. The Energy sector (XLE) was the big loser, down 5.4%, on renewed hopes for fruitful negotiations in the Middle East.

Labor market data were generally firm as initial jobless claims rose to 200K, still below expectations, while continuing claims slipped to 1.77M, the lowest level since 2024. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115K in April, ahead of estimates, and March payrolls were revised higher to 185K. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, although labor force participation fell to its lowest level since October 2021. Layoff announcements rose sequentially in April, with technology companies accounting for the largest share, often citing AI-related reductions.

Construction spending rebounded in March, factory orders rose more than expected, and demand for electronic products remained tied to the build-out of AI infrastructure. Despite the above, consumer sentiment fell to a record low in early May. Treasury yields declined slightly, the 10-year finished at 4.36%, amid lower oil prices and the Treasury Department's quarterly refunding announcement which showed steady borrowing needs.

Oil markets were focused on the SoH and brief clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces, but WTI crude ended lower amid Washington's latest peace proposal. Gold was higher supported by safe-haven demand and China's largest reported monthly purchase in more than a year. Silver and copper advanced, and the USD weakened slightly. The yen was stronger amid signs of potential intervention.

Asset Class1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
S&P 5002.36%9.16%7.06%8.52%32.27%23.06%13.45%
Dow Jones Industrials0.22%3.62%-0.58%3.75%21.99%15.99%9.43%
NASDAQ4.51%15.99%14.15%13.14%47.33%29.81%14.64%
S&P MidCap 4001.65%9.01%4.34%13.32%30.24%16.65%8.01%
Russell 20001.72%9.23%7.48%15.70%43.03%19.36%6.16%
Russell Micro Cap1.97%10.30%10.01%17.85%64.13%23.72%6.35%
Cyclical Sectors1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
Consumer Cyclical1.32%8.46%2.07%0.86%20.27%18.59%7.10%
Financials-1.31%0.08%-5.08%-5.97%4.34%18.42%8.14%
Materials0.47%-0.31%0.59%14.26%24.71%11.28%5.34%
Real Estate0.20%4.64%6.47%10.80%11.08%9.80%4.32%
Sensitive Sectors1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
Comm. Services0.19%2.75%1.34%-0.35%21.19%27.04%9.46%
Energy-5.35%-4.05%5.28%25.39%40.89%15.24%20.07%
Industrials0.14%1.62%0.29%11.97%29.05%22.24%12.14%
Technology8.43%23.88%24.52%22.06%62.03%33.34%21.27%
Defensive Sectors1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
Consumer Defensive0.01%1.69%-3.74%8.97%6.30%5.88%6.32%
Health Care-1.15%-4.13%-8.64%-6.93%8.87%4.20%4.62%
Utilities-3.93%-4.40%3.87%5.48%14.81%12.51%9.51%
Equity Style1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
Large Growth3.58%14.09%11.33%6.96%35.04%27.98%14.63%
Large Blend2.31%9.20%7.04%8.05%31.84%23.27%13.08%
Large Value0.58%2.55%0.90%9.06%25.76%17.13%10.68%
Mid Growth1.16%6.50%5.51%3.62%13.33%16.03%6.27%
Mid Blend-0.09%3.43%2.87%6.77%19.37%16.12%7.43%
Mid Value-1.03%1.16%0.91%8.75%23.24%15.64%8.19%
Small Growth1.78%8.22%8.54%13.87%34.00%17.81%4.95%
Small Blend1.24%5.66%4.32%12.21%30.81%17.60%6.73%
Small Value0.82%3.77%1.28%10.96%28.42%17.40%7.91%

In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 finished with modest gains, while Germany's DAX rose 0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB gained 2.2%, France's CAC 40 was little changed, and the UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.3%. Sentiment improved early in the week on better Middle East headlines and solid corporate earnings but weakened later after President Trump threatened higher tariffs on the EU if the bloc did not reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero. Economic data were mixed as ECB officials signaled the possibility of a June rate increase. Eurozone producer prices rose at the fastest monthly pace since 2022, German factory orders jumped 5.0%, and the UK Composite PMI rose to 52.6.

Japanese markets rallied during a holiday-shortened week as the Nikkei 225 surged 5.4% to a record high, while the TOPIX gained 2.7%, led by technology and semiconductor shares and AI demand optimism. Falling oil prices helped ease concerns about Japan's energy-import burden, and the 10-year JGB yield declined to 2.48% from 2.50%. The yen was volatile amid speculation about potential intervention but ended the week little changed versus the USD. Wage data were mixed but encouraging from a policy perspective as inflation-adjusted wages rose 1.0% y/y in March, marking the first three-month streak of real wage gains since 2021.

Chinese equities advanced after markets reopened following the May 1–5 holiday. The CSI 300 rose 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite gained 1.7% led by technology and select consumer-related shares. A private-sector survey showed services activity expanding faster than expected, with the China General Services PMI rising to 52.6. Markets were also supported by preparations for the May 14–15 Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.4%.

Region1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
MSCI ACWI2.38%7.44%6.64%9.69%33.07%21.48%11.50%
MSCI ACWI ex USA2.79%4.74%5.90%12.17%34.70%18.24%8.62%
MSCI Emerging Markets6.90%11.28%14.15%22.51%53.96%22.88%7.47%
MSCI Europe0.34%0.97%0.03%4.78%21.91%14.54%8.86%
MSCI Asia Pacific5.65%9.03%12.08%19.78%46.05%21.18%7.90%
MSCI Latin America0.40%-0.77%1.67%19.16%51.34%18.24%11.61%
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)$24.08
Price
$24.08
SMA (50)
$15.03
SMA (200)
$11.13
RSI (14)
70.44

After a sharp downturn starting in early '22, RIOT has been consolidating with prices in a channel between the high single digits and high teens. Recently, RIOT has moved above a long time resistance area, suggesting further gains are ahead.

RIOT weekly chart showing Riot Platforms Inc. price action and technical indicators

Investors begin the week asking whether ongoing momentum in the AI trade can continue to overshadow higher oil prices and a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. Earnings reports shift from large cap — only 11 SPX firms are scheduled to report — to the R2K where ~15% of companies will report.

Given the strong advance in technology last week, CSCO (Wed) and AMAT (Thur) will be focus names for the latest on enterprise spending trends while consumer names UA, DDS and YETI will hope to highlight consumer resilience.

Economic data including the CPI (Tues) and PPI (Wed) will be watched for signs of inflation picking up led by higher energy prices in headline reports. CPI core reports last month (March) were a touch light of estimates at 2.6%, as higher apparel prices offset lower used car/truck prices. Likewise, the PPI fell short of mid-4% expectations, coming in at 4%, while the core rose 3.6%, matching the highest level over the past three years.

Retail sales (Thur) is expected to remain robust in the 4% range where it has been for the better part of '24 and '25. President Trump meets with China's Xi later in the week with Middle East events and trade matters, including agriculture and rare earths, likely the major focus points.

Notable Earnings — Week of May 11
CompanyDateEPS Est.
Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG)Mon May 11$2.53
Fox Corp. (FOX)Mon May 11$1.08
The Mosaic Co. (MOS)Mon May 11$0.32
Simon Property Group (SPG)Mon May 11$1.49
Under Armour, Inc. (UA)Tue May 12$0.01
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)Tue May 12$4.20
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)Wed May 13$1.07
Doximity, Inc. (DOCS)Wed May 13$0.35
Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)Thu May 14$9.86
YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI)Thu May 14$0.57
Applied Materials (AMAT)Thu May 14$2.90
RBC Bearings, Inc. (RBC)Fri May 15$3.37
Economic Data — Week of May 11
Data ReleaseDateEst.
US Existing Home SalesMon May 114.13M
Small Business Optimism IndexTue May 1296.2
US Consumer Price Index YoYTue May 123.6%
US Producer Price Index YoYWed May 134.2%
Fed Speeches — Kashkari, LoganWed May 13N/A
US Retail Sales YoYThu May 143.3%
Empire State Mfg. IndexFri May 157.0
US Industrial Production YoYFri May 150.4%
RateAs ofLatest1 Mo Ago1 Mo %1 Yr Ago1 Yr %
1 Month Treasury5/8/263.71%3.67%1.1%4.37%-15.1%
2 Year Treasury5/8/263.90%3.79%2.9%3.90%0.0%
10 Year Treasury5/8/264.38%4.29%2.1%4.37%0.2%
30 Year Mortgage5/7/266.37%6.46%-1.4%6.76%-5.8%
US Corporate AAA5/8/264.97%4.87%2.1%4.82%3.1%
US Corporate BBB5/8/265.27%5.25%0.4%5.58%-5.6%
US Corporate CCC5/8/2613.19%13.42%-1.7%13.30%-0.8%
Effective Fed Funds5/7/263.63%3.64%-0.3%4.33%-16.2%
IndicatorAs ofLatest1 Mo Ago1 Mo %1 Yr Ago1 Yr %
Consumer Sentiment4/30/2649.8056.60-12.0%52.20-4.6%
Unemployment Rate4/30/264.30%4.40%-2.3%4.20%2.4%
Inflation Rate (CPI YoY)3/31/263.30%2.40%37.5%2.40%37.5%
Manufacturing PMI4/30/2652.7052.400.6%48.708.2%
Non-Manufacturing PMI4/30/2653.6056.10-4.5%51.603.9%
Retail Sales ($M)3/31/26651,843639,6911.9%625,5254.2%
Building Permits (K)3/31/261,3721,538-10.8%1,481-7.4%
“Inferencing and Agentic AI are increasing the need for server CPU compute as these workloads require additional CPU processing for orchestration, data movement and parallel execution in addition to serving as the head nodes for GPUs and accelerators.”
Lisa Su
Chair, President & CEO, Advanced Micro Devices
Gap Up
BLBD$71.02
Blue Bird Corporation
Machinery, Equipment & Components
CVS$90.55
CVS Health Corporation
Healthcare Providers & Services
RIOT$24.08
Riot Platforms, Inc.
Financial Technology & Infrastructure
High Volume
CGNX$65.66
Cognex Corporation
Machinery, Equipment & Components
FLYW$17.23
Flywire Corporation
Professional & Commercial Services
HNGE$56.02
Hinge Health, Inc.
Software & IT Services
Uptrend Retrace
ALGT$83.03
Allegiant Travel Company
Passenger Transportation
CME$281.25
CME Group Inc.
Investment Banking & Services
JNJ$221.32
Johnson & Johnson
Pharmaceuticals
Downtrend Slowing
APP$468.55
AppLovin Corporation
Software & IT Services
DKS$225.81
Dick's Sporting Goods
Specialty Retailers
NDAQ$88.91
Nasdaq, Inc.
Investment Banking & Services
Improving Technicals
FLYW$17.23
Flywire Corporation
Professional & Commercial Services
HUM$274.96
Humana Inc.
Healthcare Providers & Services
SXT$118.20
Sensient Technologies
Chemicals

For our full list of Stocks To Consider, contact Patrick Mullin at pmullin@timberpointcapital.com

Timber Point Capital Management • Powered by Fortis Capital Advisors
5/11/26|For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Weekly Update
TPCM Market & Economic Update
Published
May 11, 2026
TPCM Logo
The Week That Was

U.S. equities advanced as investors looked past geopolitical volatility and focused on strong earnings, resilient labor data, and continued AI-related momentum. All major indexes were in the green led by the Nasdaq which gained 4.5% spurred on by an 8.4% rise in the technology sector (XLK). The SPX climbed by 2.4% to record highs, while small and mid-cap indexes climbed by 1.7%, also closing at new highs during the week.

Corporate earnings remained strong, with roughly 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported and just under 85% beating consensus estimates (Factset). The technology sector (XLK) was driven by memory names including MU and SNDK, which both gained in excess of 30%, while AMD and INTC posted mid-20% gains as investors sought CPU exposure as their importance to inference tech stacks became more clear. The Energy sector (XLE) was the big loser, down 5.4%, on renewed hopes for fruitful negotiations in the Middle East.

Labor market data were generally firm as initial jobless claims rose to 200K, still below expectations, while continuing claims slipped to 1.77M, the lowest level since 2024. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115K in April, ahead of estimates, and March payrolls were revised higher to 185K. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, although labor force participation fell to its lowest level since October 2021.

Treasury yields declined slightly, the 10-year finished at 4.36%, amid lower oil prices and the Treasury Department's quarterly refunding announcement which showed steady borrowing needs. Oil markets were focused on the SoH and brief clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces, but WTI crude ended lower amid Washington's latest peace proposal.

Gold was higher supported by safe-haven demand and China's largest reported monthly purchase in more than a year. Silver and copper advanced, and the USD weakened slightly. The yen was stronger amid signs of potential intervention.

U.S. Equity Market Summary — As of 5/8/26
Asset Class1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
S&P 5002.36%9.16%7.06%8.52%32.27%23.06%13.45%
Dow Jones Industrials0.22%3.62%-0.58%3.75%21.99%15.99%9.43%
NASDAQ4.51%15.99%14.15%13.14%47.33%29.81%14.64%
S&P MidCap 4001.65%9.01%4.34%13.32%30.24%16.65%8.01%
Russell 20001.72%9.23%7.48%15.70%43.03%19.36%6.16%
Russell Micro Cap1.97%10.30%10.01%17.85%64.13%23.72%6.35%
U.S. Sector Summary — As of 5/8/26
Cyclical
Sector1WkYTD
Consumer Cyclical1.32%0.86%
Financials-1.31%-5.97%
Materials0.47%14.26%
Real Estate0.20%10.80%
Sensitive
Sector1WkYTD
Comm. Services0.19%-0.35%
Energy-5.35%25.39%
Industrials0.14%11.97%
Technology8.43%22.06%
Defensive
Sector1WkYTD
Consumer Defensive0.01%8.97%
Health Care-1.15%-6.93%
Utilities-3.93%5.48%
US Equity Style Summary — As of 5/8/26
Style1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
Large Growth3.58%14.09%11.33%6.96%35.04%27.98%14.63%
Large Blend2.31%9.20%7.04%8.05%31.84%23.27%13.08%
Large Value0.58%2.55%0.90%9.06%25.76%17.13%10.68%
Mid Growth1.16%6.50%5.51%3.62%13.33%16.03%6.27%
Mid Blend-0.09%3.43%2.87%6.77%19.37%16.12%7.43%
Mid Value-1.03%1.16%0.91%8.75%23.24%15.64%8.19%
Small Growth1.78%8.22%8.54%13.87%34.00%17.81%4.95%
Small Blend1.24%5.66%4.32%12.21%30.81%17.60%6.73%
Small Value0.82%3.77%1.28%10.96%28.42%17.40%7.91%
The Week Ahead

Investors begin the week asking whether ongoing momentum in the AI trade can continue to overshadow higher oil prices and a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. Earnings reports shift from large cap — only 11 SPX firms are scheduled to report — to the R2K where ~15% of companies will report.

Given the strong advance in technology last week, CSCO (Wed) and AMAT (Thur) will be focus names for the latest on enterprise spending trends while consumer names UA, DDS and YETI will hope to highlight consumer resilience.

Economic data including the CPI (Tues) and PPI (Wed) will be watched for signs of inflation picking up led by higher energy prices in headline reports. CPI core reports last month (March) were a touch light of estimates at 2.6%, as higher apparel prices offset lower used car/truck prices.

Retail sales (Thur) is expected to remain robust in the 4% range. President Trump meets with China's Xi later in the week with Middle East events and trade matters, including agriculture and rare earths, likely the major focus points.

Notable Earnings — Week of May 11
CompanyDateEPS Est.
Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG)Mon May 11$2.53
Fox Corp. (FOX)Mon May 11$1.08
The Mosaic Co. (MOS)Mon May 11$0.32
Simon Property Group (SPG)Mon May 11$1.49
Under Armour, Inc. (UA)Tue May 12$0.01
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)Tue May 12$4.20
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)Wed May 13$1.07
Doximity, Inc. (DOCS)Wed May 13$0.35
Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)Thu May 14$9.86
YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI)Thu May 14$0.57
Applied Materials (AMAT)Thu May 14$2.90
RBC Bearings, Inc. (RBC)Fri May 15$3.37
Economic Data — Week of May 11
Data ReleaseDateEst.
US Existing Home SalesMon May 114.13M
Small Business Optimism IndexTue May 1296.2
US Consumer Price Index YoYTue May 123.6%
US Producer Price Index YoYWed May 134.2%
Fed Speeches — Kashkari, LoganWed May 13N/A
US Retail Sales YoYThu May 143.3%
Empire State Mfg. IndexFri May 157.0
US Industrial Production YoYFri May 150.4%
Weekly Update
TPCM Market & Economic Update
Published
May 11, 2026
TPCM Logo
International Equity Market Summary

In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 finished with modest gains, while Germany's DAX rose 0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB gained 2.2%, France's CAC 40 was little changed, and the UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.3%. Sentiment improved early in the week on better Middle East headlines and solid corporate earnings but weakened later after President Trump threatened higher tariffs on the EU. Eurozone producer prices rose at the fastest monthly pace since 2022, German factory orders jumped 5.0%, and the UK Composite PMI rose to 52.6.

Japanese markets rallied during a holiday-shortened week as the Nikkei 225 surged 5.4% to a record high, while the TOPIX gained 2.7%, led by technology and semiconductor shares and AI demand optimism. Falling oil prices helped ease concerns about Japan's energy-import burden, and the 10-year JGB yield declined to 2.48% from 2.50%. Inflation-adjusted wages rose 1.0% y/y in March, marking the first three-month streak of real wage gains since 2021.

Chinese equities advanced after markets reopened following the May 1–5 holiday. The CSI 300 rose 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite gained 1.7% led by technology and select consumer-related shares. The China General Services PMI rose to 52.6. Markets were supported by preparations for the May 14–15 Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.4%.

Region1 Wk1 Mo3 MoYTD1 Yr3 Yr5 Yr
MSCI ACWI2.38%7.44%6.64%9.69%33.07%21.48%11.50%
MSCI ACWI ex USA2.79%4.74%5.90%12.17%34.70%18.24%8.62%
MSCI Emerging Markets6.90%11.28%14.15%22.51%53.96%22.88%7.47%
MSCI Europe0.34%0.97%0.03%4.78%21.91%14.54%8.86%
MSCI Asia Pacific5.65%9.03%12.08%19.78%46.05%21.18%7.90%
MSCI Latin America0.40%-0.77%1.67%19.16%51.34%18.24%11.61%
Key Interest Rates — As of 5/8/26
RateLatest1 Mo Ago1 Mo %1 Yr Ago1 Yr %
1 Month Treasury3.71%3.67%1.1%4.37%-15.1%
2 Year Treasury3.90%3.79%2.9%3.90%0.0%
10 Year Treasury4.38%4.29%2.1%4.37%0.2%
30 Year Mortgage6.37%6.46%-1.4%6.76%-5.8%
US Corporate AAA4.97%4.87%2.1%4.82%3.1%
US Corporate BBB5.27%5.25%0.4%5.58%-5.6%
US Corporate CCC13.19%13.42%-1.7%13.30%-0.8%
Effective Fed Funds3.63%3.64%-0.3%4.33%-16.2%
US Economy Indicators
IndicatorLatest1 Mo Ago1 Mo %1 Yr Ago1 Yr %
Consumer Sentiment49.8056.60-12.0%52.20-4.6%
Unemployment Rate4.30%4.40%-2.3%4.20%2.4%
Inflation Rate (CPI YoY)3.30%2.40%37.5%2.40%37.5%
Manufacturing PMI52.7052.400.6%48.708.2%
Non-Manufacturing PMI53.6056.10-4.5%51.603.9%
Retail Sales ($M)651,843639,6911.9%625,5254.2%
Building Permits (K)1,3721,538-10.8%1,481-7.4%
Chart of the Week — 5/11/26
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)$24.08
Price
$24.08
SMA (50)
$15.03
SMA (200)
$11.13
RSI (14)
70.44

After a sharp downturn starting in early '22, RIOT has been consolidating with prices in a channel between the high single digits and high teens. Recently, RIOT has moved above a long time resistance area, suggesting further gains are ahead.

RIOT weekly chart showing Riot Platforms Inc. price action and technical indicators
Suggested Readings
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Institute for the Study of War: Iran Update Special Report, May 10, 2026
2
AlphaFold's Surprising Revelation: AI Shifts Bottlenecks, Not Workers
3
We're Feeling Cynical About xAI's Big Deal With Anthropic
4
Software Finally Gets To Work: The Opportunity in Vertical AI
5
EU-Japan Joining Hands To Break China's Supply Chain Grip
In Their Own Words
“Inferencing and Agentic AI are increasing the need for server CPU compute as these workloads require additional CPU processing for orchestration, data movement and parallel execution in addition to serving as the head nodes for GPUs and accelerators.”
Lisa Su
Chair, President & CEO, Advanced Micro Devices
Stocks to Consider
Gap Up
BLBD$71.02
Blue Bird Corporation
Machinery, Equipment & Components
CVS$90.55
CVS Health Corporation
Healthcare Providers & Services
RIOT$24.08
Riot Platforms, Inc.
Financial Technology & Infrastructure
High Volume
CGNX$65.66
Cognex Corporation
Machinery, Equipment & Components
FLYW$17.23
Flywire Corporation
Professional & Commercial Services
HNGE$56.02
Hinge Health, Inc.
Software & IT Services
Uptrend Retrace
ALGT$83.03
Allegiant Travel Company
Passenger Transportation
CME$281.25
CME Group Inc.
Investment Banking & Services
JNJ$221.32
Johnson & Johnson
Pharmaceuticals
Downtrend Slowing
APP$468.55
AppLovin Corporation
Software & IT Services
DKS$225.81
Dick's Sporting Goods
Specialty Retailers
NDAQ$88.91
Nasdaq, Inc.
Investment Banking & Services
Improving Technicals
FLYW$17.23
Flywire Corporation
Professional & Commercial Services
HUM$274.96
Humana Inc.
Healthcare Providers & Services
SXT$118.20
Sensient Technologies
Chemicals
Weekly Update
TPCM Market & Economic Update
Published
May 11, 2026
TPCM Logo
Important Disclosures

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Source: Timber Point Capital Management. Powered by Fortis Capital Advisors. Investment Advice is offered through Fortis Capital Advisors, LLC, 7301 Mission Road, Suite 326, Prairie Village, KS 66208. All rights reserved.

TIMBER POINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Powered by Fortis Capital Advisors · 5/11/26